Steel flat prices across Europe softened steadily through most of 2025, remaining below the Q1 2024 baseline in all major markets for much of the year. This reflected weak construction and manufacturing activity, cautious buying behaviour, and sufficient material availability across the supply chain. By Q4 2025, prices relative to Q1 2024 had declined further across the region, with several markets, including Belgium, France, Denmark and the UK, recording declines of more than 10%. The continued slowdown in construction, subdued industrial output, ample domestic and imported supply, and exposure to low‑priced imports in a globally oversupplied market limited any meaningful recovery in demand.

In Q1 2026, steel flat prices increased on a QoQ basis across all key European markets. Germany, France, Italy and Spain recorded gains of around 8% to 9%. These increases were driven primarily by supply‑side factors rather than stronger consumption, including reduced domestic availability, lower import volumes linked to uncertainty around CBAM, restocking activity following extended destocking in late 2025, and higher production input costs. Adjustments in mill output also tightened availability for certain grades and sizes, supporting higher price levels despite limited improvement in underlying demand. Additional upward pressure emerged following the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil and gas prices, rising freight and insurance costs, and shipping disruptions caused by vessel rerouting increased logistics and production costs for European mills. These developments reduced the competitiveness of imported steel and raised input and transport costs for European mills, resulting in increased costs despite little increase in demand.

Looking ahead to Q2 2026, steel flat prices are expected to increase further on both a QoQ and YoY basis in most European markets. In the UK, safeguard mechanisms, including the 60% utilisation threshold within tariff‑rate quotas, may further limit import availability later in the quarter, influencing domestic price trends. This could impact the prices in Ireland also as the UK is one of the suppliers of steel to Ireland. Overall, price developments entering Q2 2026 continue to be shaped by supply conditions and cost pressures rather than a clear rebound in demand.