Macroeconomic overview

Disclaimer

This macroeconomic chapter is based primarily on the estimates and projections published in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook. These projections reflect statistical information available to the International Monetary Fund up to 1 April 2026 and may not capture the latest published data in all cases. The IMF assumes that the conflict will remain limited in duration, intensity and geographic scope, with related disruptions easing by mid-2026. If the conflict persists, escalates or causes more severe disruption to energy markets, trade routes or financial conditions, the growth and inflation outlook could differ materially from the projections presented in this chapter. The forecasts should be read in the context of the assumptions used in the reference scenario. The analysis also draws on the latest available reports from national central banks and other official institutions, accessed up to the end of April 2026.

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