Diesel prices across Europe are expected to remain elevated in the near term, peaking in mid-2026 due to tighter global crude supply, before easing gradually later in the year, with the pace of adjustment varying by country depending on fiscal measures, tax structures, and local cost pass-through.
In 2025, diesel prices across Europe largely remained below Q1 2024 levels, with the gap widening mid-year before easing slightly. This was driven by weaker industrial and transport demand and an oversupplied market.
In Q1 2026, diesel prices across Europe moved higher on a QoQ basis in most markets, largely driven by a sharp rise in global oil and refined fuel prices. This was linked to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which disrupted key supply routes and reduced crude availability, tightening global markets and pushing up input costs for refiners.
In Q2 2026, diesel prices across most European markets are expected to reach their peak, driven by a crude oil shock linked to the Middle East conflict. Higher Brent prices are expected to pass through into diesel, with most countries recording QoQ increases in the range of 8% to 27%. The UK is expected to see the sharpest rise, influenced not only by crude trends but also by currency weakness and elevated refining margins. France is also likely to experience strong upward movement due to its fixed tax structure, including TICPE excise duty and VAT. Overall, differences across markets in Q2 are expected to be shaped more by fiscal interventions than by variations in crude exposure.
In Q3 and Q4 2026, prices are expected to ease gradually across most markets as crude trends soften, although the pace of adjustment is likely to remain moderate and influenced by local tax regimes, currency movements, and the withdrawal of support measures.
© Linesight
© Linesight