Europe’s copper market in 2025 saw a sharp rise in prices, with London Metal Exchange levels trading predominantly above US$11,000 per tonne and experiencing spikes towards US$12,000. Initially, elevated prices reflected expected supply tightness, due to major mine disruptions, and electrification and infrastructure investment. However, demand across Europe remained relatively weak and Chinese consumption slowed in the second half of the year. Geopolitical and trade-related disruption, most notably the threat of US import tariffs kept prices at an elevated level. The resulting price gap between the US and global markets with US prices trading at a premium, triggered movement of copper into the US, reducing availability in Europe and pushing up regional premiums, despite no clear evidence of a widespread global shortage.

Oil market volatility and heightened risks around the Strait of Hormuz kept average copper prices elevated in Q1 2026. Ongoing logistics disruption in the Red Sea and Panama Canal extended shipping routes and increased freight costs, keeping delivered copper prices in Europe high due to continued pressure from freight, insurance and regional premiums rather than movements in headline benchmark prices.

Countries showing sharper YoY (Q2 2025 to Q2 2026) increases, such as Denmark, Norway, and Finland, reflect stronger structural demand rather than short-term tightness. In Norway, high electric vehicle penetration, long-standing zero-emission transport policies, and offshore wind and electrification-related investment are sustaining copper-intensive activity. Denmark shows a similar profile, driven by renewables, grid expansion, and digital infrastructure demand. In Finland, elevated prices are partly linked to rapid data centre development, which is increasing demand for copper-intensive electrical infrastructure.

In Q2 2026, copper prices across Europe and Israel are expected to rise further, supported by escalation in the Middle East lifting LME prices, China’s sulfuric acid export restrictions tightening supply from May, and diverging energy cost exposures. LNG-exposed markets such as Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are likely to see a stronger uplift, while nuclear and fossil-free systems in France and the Nordics are expected to face a more limited pass-through. From Q3 to Q4 2026, prices are expected to ease gradually as risk premia fade and supply conditions rebalance.