Aluminium prices increased in late 2025 and early 2026 as supply constraints and policy changes outweighed weak demand. Visible inventories on the London Metal Exchange fell, indicating there may be some speculative purchasing or precautionary stock withdrawals, reducing aluminium stock availability especially in north-west Europe such as Belgium, Germany and Netherlands.

Energy remains a key concern, as aluminium production is highly dependent on electricity, making the market vulnerable to power-related disruptions.

Price volatility also increased due to trade policy changes, most notably the introduction of a 50% US tariff on aluminium and the extension of tariffs to more aluminium-containing products.

These measures disrupted global trade flows, raised uncertainty around replacement costs, and reduced confidence among aluminium-intensive downstream industries. In Europe, proposals to keep more aluminium scrap within the region, including discussions on export fees and the introduction of customs monitoring of scrap movements, also affected supply expectations. These measures also contributed to regional prices increases through concern about scrap availability.

On the demand side, the economic backdrop was mixed. Slower growth across major consuming regions limited overall aluminium consumption. These factors carried into early 2026, when aluminium prices remained highly sensitive to changes in inventories, energy costs, policy decisions and geopolitical risks.

Against this backdrop, aluminium prices are forecast to rise further in Q2 2026 across most European markets, with increases moderated or amplified depending on local exposure to LME pass-through, currency movements, contract structures and energy systems. Markets with direct LME transmission and limited hedging, such as the Netherlands, France, Sweden and Ireland, are expected to see the strongest Q2 increases, while countries with currency pegs, strong domestic energy buffers or contract-based pricing, including Denmark, Norway, Germany and Italy, are forecast to experience more muted upward movement.

Overall, Q2 2026 prices are expected to remain elevated, supported by ongoing supply-side constraints, policy-driven uncertainty and energy cost sensitivity, rather than a recovery in end-use demand.