Global copper prices rose sharply in 2025, with the strongest increase in Q3 2025. Trends varied across APAC and the GCC markets due to differences in demand, currency exposure and inventory availability. All countries recorded overall price growth. By end-2025, prices had reached around 1.3 to 1.7 times their Q1 2024 levels.

Several factors drove this rise. Mine closures reduced supply, while demand grew across infrastructure, electrification and AI-related projects. The US also doubled tariffs on copper to 50%, triggering speculative buying and straining already constrained supply chains.

In late February 2026, the Middle East conflict introduced significant geopolitical risk. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through which around one-fifth of global oil trade passes, tightened both energy and copper supply chains. As a result, global LME copper prices rose by 15% QoQ in Q1 2026. In energy-importing countries such as India, Thailand and Japan, rising oil costs widened trade deficits and weakened currencies, compounding the price impact.

Across APAC and the GCC markets, copper prices rose by 9% to 18% QoQ in Q1 2026. India and Japan recorded the highest increases, at around 18%. In India, strong infrastructure and energy demand added to currency-driven pressure. ICRA expects Indian copper demand to grow by 10% to 12% annually over the next two years.

In Q2 2026, prices are expected to rise by 1% to 6% across most markets. China's sulphuric acid export restrictions, announced in April 2026, are a key supply-side driver, disrupting mining processes that account for around 20% of global copper output. India may see the higher end of this range, driven by renewable energy investment, import dependence and currency pressure. Australia, Singapore and Malaysia are expected to see smaller increases, supported by relatively stronger currencies.

In the GCC, prices closely track LME movements given dollar-pegged currencies. The Middle East conflict is adding uncertainty through higher shipping and logistics costs, though construction demand across the region remains steady.

From Q3 2026, prices may ease. The outlook depends on the duration of the Middle East conflict, conditions along Hormuz trade routes, and the continued impact of sulphuric acid supply constraints on global copper production.