In 2025, aluminium prices increased across most major markets compared with Q1 2024, driven primarily by global supply constraints, energy costs, trade policies, and country-specific demand factors. Japan and India recorded the most pronounced aluminium price increases in 2025. In India, restrictions on imports significantly reduced the availability of scrap and semi-finished aluminium, while demand from automotive, construction, and power sectors remained firm, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment. In Japan, rising prices were largely linked to higher physical delivery premiums, as market participants anticipated that new US tariffs on Canadian aluminium would redirect supplies towards North America, reducing material availability in Asia and pushing regional premiums higher.

Moving into Q1 2026, aluminium prices across APAC rose sharply from Q4 2025, led by India, KSA, UAE, Australia and Japan. In India, aluminium prices increased due to higher raw material and scrap costs, tighter BIS compliance and domestic scrap availability, and continued support from the automotive sector. In the GCC, price increases were primarily supply-led. Reduced output and operational risks at major GCC smelters, tightened regional and global supply, with the region accounting for around 8% to 10% of global primary aluminium production. Ongoing exposure to energy availability and logistics risks added a further cost premium, while demand from construction, infrastructure, energy and industrial projects across the GCC provided secondary support relative to supply-side constraints.

In Q2 2026, aluminium prices are expected to increase across most APAC and GCC markets, primarily driven by higher LME prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Import-dependent markets such as India, Taiwan, Malaysia and the UAE are expected to see relatively stronger increases, where currency weakness or supply disruption is likely to amplify global price movements. Pegged-currency markets, including the KSA and UAE, are expected to broadly track the LME, while Australia and Singapore are also likely to record increases due to higher global prices and currency effects. Elevated prices in Q1 are expected to have been driven by pre-emptive stockpiling ahead of escalating US tariffs. Looking ahead, prices are expected to ease gradually in Q3 and Q4 2026 as the geopolitical risk premium fades, LME prices normalise and several regional currencies partially recover.