Key takeaways
US and Canadian rebar prices are expected to be relatively stable over the coming quarters, supported by infrastructure demand and trade barriers, while private construction will be the main swing factor.
Steel rebar prices in the US remained elevated through 2025. The main drivers included tariffs that increased the cost of imported steel, infrastructure-related demand, and ongoing supply-side constraints, rather than market-wide construction growth. A clear difference emerged between the two markets when compared to the Q1 2024 baseline. In the US, Section 232 tariffs sharply reduced import volumes, particularly from traditional suppliers. At the same time, mills controlled output and public infrastructure spending remained steady. Prices stayed elevated even as private construction weakened and moved clearly above early 2024 levels from mid-2025 onwards.
In Canada, prices were more volatile. Exports to the US declined, and rebar prices remained mostly below the Q1 2024 reference level through much of 2025, reflecting weak external demand. However, domestic pricing was partly supported by government infrastructure spending and tighter import quotas, alongside retaliatory trade measures that limited competitive supply.
In Q1 2026, rebar prices rose further in both markets, in line with the QoQ rise seen in late 2025. The increase reflected higher steelmaking costs, rising freight and energy expenses linked to Middle East disruptions, and ongoing trade barriers that restricted cross-border and offshore supply.
Rebar prices are expected to remain firm through Q2 2026 and the remainder of 2026, with limited movement within a narrow range. In the US, prices are likely to stay well above mid-2025 levels on a YoY basis. In Canada, movement is expected to be more limited, as cost pressures and infrastructure-led demand are offset by a lack of sustained recovery in private construction.
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