Steel flat prices in the US and Canada remained well below the Q1 2024 baseline through most of 2025 but increased after the sharp declines seen in late 2024. The rebound was driven mainly by stronger trade protection, not by a clear improvement in demand. In the US, the reintroduction and later increase of Section 232 tariffs, reaching a 50% duty in June 2025, reduced import competitiveness and tightened domestic supply. Mills raised prices multiple times during 2025 even as private construction remained weak and manufacturing demand improved only modestly. In Canada, prices remained under pressure earlier in the year. Exports to the US fell sharply and domestic prices lagged early 2024 levels. Conditions improved later in 2025 as mills cut output, shifted focus to domestic sales, and benefited from retaliatory tariffs and “Buy Canadian” procurement measures. This supported a QoQ improvement in Q4 2025.

In Q1 2026, steel flat prices increased further, particularly in the US. The increase reflected tight supply conditions rather than a demand rebound. Lower import volumes under Section 232 tariffs, mills prioritizing contract volumes over spot availability, and longer delivery lead times, supported higher prices across the quarter. Spring maintenance outages at selected mills, alongside higher scrap, energy, and logistics costs, added upward pressure. Demand remained uneven. Private construction stayed weak and manufacturing showed only tentative improvement. Overall, Q1 price dynamics remained largely policy-led and supply-led.

In Canada, prices were broadly stable through most of Q1 2026 following the increase seen in late 2025. Domestic supply remained generally adequate, limiting mills’ ability to push through further increases despite higher input costs and tighter import quotas.

In Q2 2026, steel flat prices are expected to remain elevated but become more sensitive to shifts in supply and demand. Prices are forecast to be higher YoY, but further upside is likely to be constrained by softer private construction activity, rising domestic production in the US, and the risk that sustained high prices could attract additional imports despite existing tariffs.