Macroeconomic overview

The US and Canadian outlook remains positive but uneven as economic growth holds up despite a more complex risk backdrop.

The US continues to outperform, supported by AI-led investment, strong productivity gains, and the lagged effects of fiscal support and earlier rate cuts. Growth is expected to ease only slightly through 2027, despite higher trade barriers and renewed energy price pressure.

Canada’s outlook is steadier but more modest. Growth is set to slow in 2026 before recovering in 2027, as monetary easing and fiscal support underpin demand.

Inflation is the main shared challenge. Energy prices and trade costs are pushing inflation higher in both economies, raising uncertainty around the pace of return to targets set by each country's central bank.1

GDP growth and inflation

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Canada

US

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Canada
US

Real GDP

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Inflation rate

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Sources

  1. World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2026

Disclaimer

This macroeconomic chapter is based primarily on the estimates and projections published in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook. These projections reflect statistical information available to the International Monetary Fund up to April 1st 2026 and may not capture the latest published data in all cases. The IMF assumes that the conflict in the Middle East will remain limited in duration, intensity, and geographic scope, with related disruptions easing by mid-2026. If the conflict persists, escalates or causes more severe disruption to energy markets, trade routes or financial conditions, the growth and inflation outlook could differ materially from the projections presented in this chapter. The forecasts should be read in the context of the assumptions used in the reference scenario. The analysis also draws on the latest available reports from national central banks and other official institutions, accessed up to the end of April 2026.

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