Key takeaways

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated through Q2 2026, with only modest easing from Q3. US tariffs and ongoing supply risks are likely to keep prices above global benchmarks.

 How to use these charts

Copper prices in the US and Canada remained elevated in early 2026, building on strong gains through 2025. Prices were supported by tariff-related buying, steady demand from power infrastructure and digital projects, and constrained mine supply. Importers accelerated purchases ahead of expected US tariff changes. This boosted short-term demand and tightened inventories. Supply disruptions added further pressure. Production challenges at major mines, including Quebrada Blanca in Chile, Highland Valley Copper in Canada, and Grasberg in Indonesia, reduced global availability. As a result, copper prices in North America in Q1 2026 were more than 1.5 times higher than in Q1 2024.

In an already constrained market, global prices rose by around 15% QoQ in Q1 2026. Prices reached record levels in January and remained high through April. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were a key factor driving prices, although prices eased slightly in March amid concerns about the global economic outlook. On a QoQ basis, prices increased by 14% in Canada and 15% in the US. US prices also faced added cost pressure from Section 232 changes announced on April 2nd 2026. Tariffs were applied to the full customs value of goods rather than only the metal content, increasing costs across copper-related products.

Global prices are expected to remain elevated in Q2 2026, supported by demand from electrification, data centers, transport infrastructure, and defence technologies. Geopolitical risk remains a key factor. Supply-side pressures may also increase due to restrictions on sulfuric acid exports from China, with potential implications for up to 20% of global output. US prices are likely to remain above London Metal Exchange (LME) levels due to tariffs and delivery costs. Canada may see some cost advantage due to lower exposure to sulphuric acid constraints, as major copper mines in Canada are primarily sulphide flotation operations rather than sulphuric acid intensive processes. From Q3 2026, global prices may ease, although tariffs may keep US prices elevated and affect copper-intensive construction packages.

Links to additional commodities

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