Key takeaways
Aluminum prices are expected to remain elevated through 2026, supported by tariffs and tight supply. Exposure to global price shocks remains and key risk, with upward pressure likely to be stronger in the US than in Canada.
US aluminum prices increased steadily through 2025 versus the Q1 2024 baseline, with the largest increase seen in Q4. The increase was driven by continued trade protection, lower import volumes, and tight domestic supply. Inventory drawdowns and year‑end restocking helped producers hold prices despite ongoing policy uncertainty. Improving manufacturing activity and infrastructure spending also supported prices toward the end of the year.
In Canada, prices recovered after weakness in mid‑2025 and continued to rise into Q4. Producers adjusted to disrupted trade flows by shifting exports, mainly toward Europe, while government relief measures helped stabilize the market. Global oversupply weighed on pricing earlier in the year but easing trade disruptions and policy support supported price growth by Q4 2025.
Prices remained elevated in Q1 2026. In the US, higher electricity costs linked to AI data center expansion reduced power availability for smelters, adding to supply constraints alongside import tariffs. Canadian prices also increased further. Support came from stronger export demand and increased shipments to the US as inventory levels declined.
Prices are expected to increase in Q2 2026, driven mainly by a sharp increase in London Metal Exchange (LME) prices following supply disruptions in the Middle East. Canadian prices are forecast to broadly track the LME. US prices are expected to move even higher, with a high Midwest Premium likely to amplify global price movements under the Section 232 tariffs. Overall, tariffs, constrained supply, and global price shocks are expected to keep aluminium prices elevated into Q2 2026, even as producers in both markets continue to manage trade‑related adjustments and margin pressure.
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